Scenarios
The identification and analysis
of scenarios is where Emergency Preparedness Planning starts. We must know what
we are planning for, but we cannot plan for every possible eventuality. Nor can
anyone organisation provide the total emergency response: an inter-agency
collaboration is fundamental to successful planning and responding.
Several questions in relation
to possible scenarios must be asked:
What are the likely scenarios? Which of these can be addressed?
Which are the most difficult to manage?
How many people might be affected?
With which agencies are we going to collaborate?
What is our collective capacity to respond?
In responding, how many
people can we care for?
In any scenario the impact on
different individuals or communities will vary with their capacity to cope.
Probably about 50% will find a haven with friends or relatives: the remainder
may require humanitarian assistance.
Scenario complexity in many
countries makes it difficult to identify the few scenarios upon which to base
the planning. The existence of numerous political, racial, tribal groups or the
varying geographic locations, each of which manifests different planning
problems, will complicate the process. Even without this level of complexity,
finding agreement on the selection of a few scenarios may be elusive.
Where there are different
geographic areas, separate planning processes may be desirable. This may be
accomplished through different sub groups comprising regional or district
agency representatives planning separately while the separate parts are brought
together at central level in one Plan with consistent elements. The separate
plans will require coordination through the participation in the regional
meetings of at least one representative from the central planning committee.
Scenarios. A good start is to brain storm the possibilities for a
particular district or area. This must include local people. The result may be:
-
tsunami
-
floods
-
storms and lightening
-
fire
-
drought
-
cyclone
-
landslides
-
bomb blasts
-
coastal erosion
-
epidemics
-
road/industrial accidents
-
local conflicts
-
war
-
earthquake
- meteorite impact
Risk. At the present time, many groups will start with
tsunami, because that is fresh in memory. The list must now be reordered
according to the risk of occurrence. „Risk‟ is the likelihood or statistical
probability of occurrence. The risk can be determined by studying historical
records (with possible input from Geological Survey and Meteorological
Departments). Now the list will take on a different order: tsunamis will have a
lower risk than floods, and may be placed at the bottom, but above meteorite
impact.
Management difficulty. Selection
of a few scenarios for immediate preparedness planning can be related to risk
of occurrence. Now rearrange the list according to difficulty of management.
This will help focus on numbers of people affected. Then select a few scenarios
to be covered by the plan. i.e
Heavy rainfall -- - - - Breach of dams - - - - -Fire outbreak-----blasts |
..
check back for more post updates..
No comments:
Post a Comment